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That is not how it happened in the past. The last major agreement between Tehran and Washington, reached during the Obama administration, took two years to negotiate. And it was full of compromises, including allowing Iran to retain a small amount of its nuclear stockpile, and gradually lifting the restrictions on its nuclear activities until 2030, when Iran would be permitted to conduct any nuclear activity permissible under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.<\/p>\n
But the deadlock Mr. Vance ran into was essentially the same as the ones that derailed negotiations in late February, and prompted Mr. Trump to order the attack. (That negotiation was run by Mr. Witkoff and Jared Kushner, the president\u2019s son-in-law, who were present in Islamabad during the more than 20 hours of negotiations.)<\/p>\n
Back then, the Iranians offered to \u201csuspend\u201d their nuclear operations for a few years, but not to give up their stockpiles of near-bomb-grade uranium or permanently surrender the capability to enrich uranium on their own soil. To the Iranians, that is their right as a signatory of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, which commits them to never making a nuclear weapon. To the Americans, it is what Mr. Witkoff called \u201ca tell\u201d that Iran always wants a ready option to build a nuclear weapon, even if it never exercises that option.<\/p>\n
Thirty-eight days of war appear to have hardened that view, not loosened it.<\/p>\n
Mr. Trump\u2019s chief leverage now comes in his ability to threaten to resume major combat operations. After all, the fragile two-week cease-fire ends on April 21. But while the threat of resuming combat operations may be invoked in coming days, it not a particularly viable political choice for Mr. Trump \u2014 and the Iranians know it.<\/p>\n
Mr. Trump declared the cease-fire last week in large part to stem the pain from the loss of 20 percent of the world\u2019s oil supplies, which was sending the price of gasoline soaring, and creating shortages of fertilizer and, among other critical supplies, helium for the production of semiconductors. Markets rose on the prospect of an agreement, even an incomplete or unsatisfactory one. Should the war resume, the markets would most likely decline, the shortages would worsen and inflation \u2014 already up to 3.3 percent \u2014 would almost inevitably rise.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n