\n<\/p>\n
Almost exactly 10<\/span> years ago, as the U.S. was the cusp of sealing a historic agreement to curb Iran\u2019s nuclear program, Barack Obama offered a warning to those who were working to tank the accord: \u201cLet\u2019s not mince words: The choice we face is ultimately between diplomacy and some form of war \u2014 maybe not tomorrow, maybe not three months from now, but soon.\u201d<\/p>\n Obama struck the deal in 2015, but less than three years later<\/a>, during President Donald Trump\u2019s first term, the U.S. unilaterally violated the agreement<\/a>. After a short time, the deal was dead.<\/p>\n Then came the war Obama had predicted. This month, Israel unleashed barrages of missiles, bombs, and drone attacks against Iranian military installations, nuclear facilities, and residential neighborhoods. Iran undertook retaliatory strikes at Israel.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n It would be easy to lay the blame this war almost entirely on Trump and Netanyahu.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n <\/p>\n The U.S., after an apparent feint <\/a>at diplomacy, then entered the fray, making a massive bombing run against Iranian nuclear facilities <\/a>\u2014 and raising the specter of an all-out regional conflict or, worse, a world war. Thankfully, U.S. involvement was limited and, after 12 days of exchanges, Israel and Iran agreed to a ceasefire.<\/p>\n It would be easy to lay the blame this war almost entirely on Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. For decades, Netanyahu has sought to ensnarl<\/a> the U.S. <\/a>in a direct war with Iran<\/a> \u2014 and in Trump he seemed to have found one, just as Trump acquiesced to Netanyahu\u2019s catastrophic demand that the U.S. tear up Obama\u2019s Iran deal.<\/p>\n While this is indeed true, it risks letting off the hook the people who could have restored Obama\u2019s nuclear deal with Iran and helped avoid this new nightmare scenario.<\/p>\n Some blame for the war, for the dead civilians, and for the instability wrought on the lives of people in the Middle East belongs to President Joe Biden.<\/p>\n Biden, who served as Obama\u2019s own vice president, squandered the chance to correct course and avert the crisis unfolding today.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n When Biden came into office in 2021, he had a laundry list of Trump excesses that he pledged to undo in his effort to restore normalcy. He made good on some of those promises \u2014 ending policies like the travel ban and returning to the Paris climate accord with the stroke of a pen on day one of his presidency.<\/p>\n Biden\u2019s commitment to return to the Iran nuclear deal, his advisers said, would be more complicated. The new president and his team suggested that a precondition for a U.S. return would be for Iran to address steps it had taken to expand its nuclear work in retaliation for the U.S. violating the accord, rather than the U.S. simply restoring its own compliance with the obligations it had violated. This prompted weeks of back and forth and took time off the negotiations clock that neither party could afford.<\/p>\n The delay didn\u2019t only affect prospects for a deal itself but had a wider effect on regional politics. Many observers thought the new administration understood the need to move swiftly to restore the deal before rapidly approaching Iranian presidential elections that summer. The elections could return hard-liners who had vigorously opposed the nuclear deal back into power.<\/p>\n Understanding as much, Biden was sure to seize the initiative \u2014 and wouldn\u2019t fall for the advice of those arguing the president should \u201cuse Trump\u2019s leverage\u201d to force a \u201cbetter deal.\u201d Surely, Biden wouldn\u2019t bide his time and allow opponents of the deal to tie his hands.<\/p>\n Rather than urgently restore U.S. commitments under the agreement, however, Biden ordered that his advisers \u201ckeep the Middle East off his desk\u201d as he focused on his domestic agenda.<\/p>\n Advisers like Brett McGurk, who has been advocating for and celebrating America\u2019s entry into Israel\u2019s war on Iran on CNN over the past two weeks, dutifully complied. Negotiations started, but they were circular, undermined by congressional hawks and Israeli sabotage \u2014 including a 2021 Israeli attack on Iran\u2019s Natanz nuclear facility<\/a> just as negotiations were finally getting underway.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Ultimately, Biden\u2019s team missed the window for a deal.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n <\/p>\n Ultimately, Biden\u2019s team missed the window for a deal before a harsh critic of the original nuclear agreement was sworn in as Iran\u2019s president. Iran\u2019s nuclear program<\/a> advanced by leaps and strides, with Iran becoming capable of producing enough enriched material for a nuclear weapon in a matter of weeks.<\/p>\n By the end of Biden\u2019s term, his advisers were not debating a diplomatic solution to the nuclear issue but rather were debating their own military strikes on Iran to set back its program.<\/p>\n The nuclear crisis \u2014 imminently resolvable under Biden \u2014 was instead made worse throughout his term in office and then handed to Trump, who acted wisely at first in engaging in nuclear negotiations with Iran but eventually caved to Netanyahu.<\/p>\n Now, hundreds of innocent people have been killed, destruction has been wrought in Israel and Iran, and we are much worse off in terms of Iran\u2019s capabilities \u2014 and intentions \u2014 than we were 10 years ago.<\/p>\n <\/p>\nBlown Opportunity<\/h2>\n